WEBODIGY Business & Finance Journal

Gold becomes an alternative investment in the stock market amid the turmoil of the world, considering that gold price movements tend to hold strong.

Experts in the London Bullion Market Association predicts, this year the highest price of gold could be at the level of USD1.009 per troy ounce (1 troy ounce = 31.103 grams). On Monday, February 18 yesterday, gold prices in Asia rose 0.6 percent, or $ 5, 13 to USD907, 63 per ounce. While for April delivery rose 0.5 percent, or $ 4, 70 to USD910, 80 per ounce.

There are many factors that drive this increase. Among the most striking is the slow rate of sales of gold reserve in a number of banks such as the European Central Bank, the decline in gold production and the decline in the dollar. However, the most significant of prosperity and high demand in South Asia, Middle East, and China.

According to the World Gold Council data, demand for precious metals in India reached 800 tons per year are mostly used for jewelry. Estimated, ownership of gold in India reached 40,000 tons, or about a third of the total ownership in the world.

While in Pakistan, World Gold Council claimed difficulties in getting exact figures. However, based on their estimates, the demand there is in the range of 150-160 tons per year. China needs 220 tons per year (1 ton = 32.150 ounces). The analyst predicts gold demand in Asian countries will continue to grow as the continued economic growth in the region. The increased demand for jewelry in South Asia and the Middle East accompanied by erosion of the dollar and concerns related to inflation and recession.

This also sparked investor interest in gold and appears to form a new investment such as gold-based mutual funds traded on exchanges (Gold ETFs / Exchange-Traded Funds). Recently, interest in the Gold ETF investors in international markets increased sharply as gold prices reached record highs of above USD900 per troy ounce after rising about 30 percent last year.

Although in India own request yet seramai Gold ETF in the global market, some analysts predict if there will be more interest in this investment product, considering the high price of gold and the importance of physical gold, will prevent the men to buy jewelry, at least as a form of investment.

“It could be Gold ETFs will eventually replace the demand for large-scale jewelry because jewelry prices continue to rise is not achieved by a number of small investors,” said analyst research body Anand Rathi Commodities Subodh Gupta. Based on the mutual fund data provider, based in New Delhi, to yield gold in the domestic market ETFs Value Research, the yield for the gold ETFs in the domestic market in the six-month period ended February 15 is better than most other forms of investments such as stocks and mutual fixed income funds.

Even in the last three months, when the domestic stock market slumped, these new investment products conclusively showed the best performance than others. Other major factors that make gold investment is increasingly popular perception of the continuity of the current U.S. economy.

Some analysts argue, the U.S. will not escape from the shackles of recession and depression in the dollar would continue so that jack up the price of gold. Related to that, some analysts said, the increase of gold prices traded in Asia affected by speculation that the U.S. central bank will again cut interest rates following the economic slowdown is growing worse.

The traders increased speculation the Fed will again cut interest rates in an effort to avoid U.S. resesi.FutureContracts in the Chicago Board of Trade show 34 percent chance for the Fed will cut its lending rate 75 basis points (bps) at the meeting policy council next March 18. While the possibility of a reduction of 50 bps in the 66 percent probability level.

“In my opinion, the current gold investors are worried about the movement of U.S. dollar and the U.S. economic status. They were waiting whether the Fed will again cut interest rates or not,” said manager of Standard Bank Asia Ltd. is specialized in precious metals Ellison Chu

CONDITIONS financial markets is still uncertain to make smart people should manage the funds owned. Almost the last year, the risk of investing in the financial sector increased sharply.

The collapse of capital markets makes investors are now returning after commodity. In addition to crude oil (crude oil), commodity investors are being hunted gold. In a country where society has advanced, this condition makes the passion of all kinds of gold investments, including derivative transactions.

Unlike the modern investment products like mutual funds, stocks, and bonds the newly recognized recently, the gold into investment goods from time to time. Gold can be used as part of the investment portfolio investors, some investment diversification alternatives.

One of the benefits of gold, the price is always moving to keep pace with inflation. Despite decades of stored, remain the same gold value. In contrast to save funds in the form of cash, the value of money will decrease inflation consumed when stored in a long time.

“The market is still waiting for the moment, if the USD weakens the price of gold will rise. Speculation on commodities, oil began to fall, and now investors hunt for gold,” said Country Manager, World Gold Council (WGC) Indonesia Leo Hadi Loe.

Although gold prices often fluctuate, from time to time tend to continue to increase. For example last week, gold prices had dropped to levels Rp230.000 per gram, but within a week managed to rebound to a position Rp266.000 per gram.

Compared to other commodities investment, gold has many advantages. Among them, gold is the type of investment whose value is very stable, liquid, and a real safe, and can be managed alone. Thus, gold is very worthy to be a part of the investment portfolio.

According to Leo, the investment in this highly profitable commodity. Especially in the condition of the sluggish world economy. “There is support levels that make the price of gold will not come down,” he said.

Gold investing so easy to make anybody could be a gold investor. Investment can be done by housewives, professionals, businessmen, market actors or businesses as an alternative investment.

Meanwhile, President Director of PT Kurnia Jaya Danial Franky revealed, opening the gold business quite profitable. In addition to profit from the difference between the selling price and the cost of making jewelry, business circles also benefit from the gold price hikes. “Also quite illiquid. Stock is redeemable if there could be a lack of funds,” he explained.

However, keep in mind for beginners who want to start a business must be aware of the gold circulation of false gold. “A lot of fraud from suppliers with the mode of copper coated with gold. So, as if it is not pure gold,” he said.

He explained, gold-copper layer is normally supplied by the domestic gold craftsmen. “Obviously it hurt businesses and consumers,” he said.

According to him, investing in gold bullion far more profitable than gold jewelry. Because every purchase of gold bars did not get any additional costs. Likewise, when to sell.

“Other more if invested in jewelry will be charged the amount of jewelry making Rp35.000-Rp50.000 per gram. Whereas when we sold it, it does not count the cost of missing alias,” he said.

He said another advantage of investing in gold bullion, the investor is easy to sell anytime soon. In fact, gold investments can be used as collateral on the mortgage so that investors do not have to sell gold they own.

He explains, one of the benefits of commodity investing is gold does not need to worry investors affected by inflation. When the exchange rate continued to decline, the value of gold will remain. Because it is not wrong if gold prices continue to soar up.

“Gold will continue to have high value and still be bought,” called Franky. In Indonesia, Surabaya well known as industrial centers and the largest gold trading. Nearly 70 percent of the gold trade market and factories producing gold in Indonesia in Surabaya.

Surabaya gold plant was categorized world class. This makes a lot of foreign investors interested in opening a gold factory. As the center of gold jewelry, Surabaya has a lot of human resources (HR) are experts in their fields and rich raw materials. In addition, investors are also much easier to find equipment to process the gold, as well as maintenance and the service

Pawnshops Branch Bandarjaya marketing credits precious metals, in the form of bars that are named program Majesty (MUrababah metal for Investment Eternal). With the program Majesty, the community may have investments in the form of gold bars that can be purchased on a pay in both cash.

Head sub-branch Bandarjaya, Sri Winarti say, product Highness was introduced in Central Lampung for approximately two months. Nationally, this product is long. Recognized Sri, after being introduced to the customer, not the least interested and direct loans gold.

Interestingly, through this program, people can have the precious metal by way of credit up to 24 months. In his study, Mining Branch Bandarjaya, Sri show a few grams of precious metal which was in credit customers. With a weight of five grams and ten grams. It said Sri, the goods will be given to the customer, if the credit was paid.

“Honor is a credit purchase of gold bullion. Investment in Honor is more likely to secure and easy to sell. gold bars that are credited through the Start is pure gold, precious metals certified. Weight minimum precious metal is credited from 5 grams to 1 kilogram. Society can choose to buy gold which weighs how many grams. Can 5 grams, 10 grams, 15 grams and so on up to 1 kilogram, “said Sri.

According to him, for those interested to have an investment gold bullion through the Pawnshop, DP mortgage for 30 percent of the price of precious metals. The price depends on the loan. And the rest can be repaid from 1 month to 24 months.

The price of credit at Pawnshops apply based on the loan. Credit score does not depend on the price of gold in the market. If the covenant gold prices cheap, and a year later the price of gold soared, mortgage remains the same. And this one is profitable if the investment in the gold noble.

Dicontohkannya, buy gold bullion weight 5 grams with DP 30 percent, meaning customers pay a deposit of about Rp500 thousand (depending on the price of gold during loan). If the credit for 6 months, each month to pay installments of about 200 thousands. “After the credits finish, the new gold unacceptable,”he said as he says, the requirements to buy gold bars at the Pawnshop is photo copy of ID card is still valid.

Pawnshops get gold bars in cooperation with PT Aneka Tambang, or Antam. Who is state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and engaged in the mining and processing of minerals, diversified, with a primary focus on nickel, gold, silver, and bauxite.

”Buying precious metal bars can be by cash and credit. Depending on ability. This program is offered for those who really want to invest in a profitable,”he added.

Demand for gold investment demand rose 96 percent to 122.7 tons. In 2008 the commodity price increase is estimated at more limited.

Gold prestige so fascinating. Beginning in January last week, the price has gone through USD872, 55 per troy once. New record for the last 28 years shows that during 2007 the price of the yellow has increased 38.2 percent.

Within the country, due to the increase of gold jewelry that transactions continue to slow. Understandably, 24-carat gold price in the range dibanderol now Rp256, 260 thousand per gram. In fact, in January last year the new price is Rp190 thousand per gram.

Vivi, a gold trader in the region Cikini, Central Jakarta, to express, to find a buyer it is difficult. When prices started creeping up in mid 2007, he said, there are still many consumers who make the sale. But, the condition is now rare.

“The day could do just one piece is good,” he admitted, was quoted as saying Saturday (19/1/2008). To get the filthy lucre, the traders are now dependent on the cost of washing jewelry. The fee of about Rp25 thousand per piece.

The question is, will the gold price would continue rising? Head of Research Recapital Poltak Hotradero, not too sure. He just saw the price of gold will be sloped. Therefore, global demand will diminish.

Poltak revealed, there are two factors that make this commodity prices rose sharply. First, demand from China and India growing very rapidly. Growing number of upper middle class citizens have been pushing gold demand increased.

The second factor related to the weakening United States currency. As is known, the movement of CAD is inversely proportional to the price of gold. For example in August last year. When the case began sticking subprime mortgage in the U.S., exchange rate USDterhadap world currencies, especially the Euro weakened. As a result, in September, gold has gone up seven per cent to as low as USD712, 63 per troy once.

Poltak rate, gold demand from China and India will diminish. Therefore, the price was too high. The impact, on demand in the market will tend to decrease. Because there are no other factors that would encourage increased demand. Pamor CAD is also expected to be better than last year.

Although the ripples subprime mortgage and oil prices could affect the fundamental American, but his condition was not believed to be getting worse.

Different views expressed Leo Hadi. According to Country Manager of World Gold Council (WGC), the American economy is now in a difficult position. On the one hand, to suppress inflation, they have to raise interest rates.

However, if it is the impact of subprime mortgage could come back bigger. Therefore, Leo sure, the Federal Reserve would cut rates to as low as 3.50 percent. When it was done, he said, USD will weaken. So that the potential increase in gold prices, although limited, re-open.

Throughout 2008, if the oil price is still below the level of USD 100 per barrel, gold prices are predicted to be in the range of USD750-850 per troy once.

Conversely, if oil kept going and passed the USD 100 per barrel, the price could penetrate USD900 per troy once. Because these energy price increases will encourage more parties to hedging. One of them by buying gold price is relatively more stable and rarely fall.

Based on data from WGC, until the quarter III-2007, world gold demand rose 19 percent to 947.2 tons. The need for investment rose 96 percent to 250.7 tons position. The gold for consumption only rose six percent to 590.7 tons.

Although the top position in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s gold consumption is declining. If in the year 2006 amounted to 57 tons, until the end of 2007 estimated that only 50 tons.

For gold investors, Leo advises them to wait and see attitude. Current price to be disadvantageous for investment. According to Leo, investors should wait for the price-level corrected to USD750 per troy once.

The economic crisis the United States (U.S.) is an impact on society, not least for the Indonesian people. The panic over the impact of global crisis make investors turn to invest a lot of gold. Investment option gold today remains the most favorable votes than the other option given the nature of “immune” inflation.

Global investors will switch to cash and gold rather than the financial markets. The reason, global investors have lost confidence in the financial markets, capital, and debt securities from financial crisis in the United States. Someone make an investment because it is triggered by the need for the future.

It is estimated that up to the end of the year the gold price will fluctuate achieve the highest price, because the world financial market turbulence refers to the U.S. dollar is uncertain. From the past until now investment experts always say that gold is one of the safest types of investments and the most profitable.

Gold investing the same nature with investing funds to buy land and property in certain cities in Indonesia such as Bali and Yogyakarta, the price kept rising. Gold is also very good for diversification of investments after having investments in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or property. Gold demand will rise if there are two things, the uncertain state conditions and inflation.

The most common form of gold is a bar-like coal-yield 95 percent or 99 percent (24 carat). These types considered most favorable for investment because whenever and wherever sold, the price to follow international standards. Another form is the coin which is a good idea when buying select products from leading manufacturers such as Maples, Krands, or Eagles. There is also a form of gold jewelry.

When we look at the gold price movement, the beginning of September gold price ranges from Rp. 243,500 and continued to weaken until September 5, 2008. Gold began to rise sharply on 18 September 2008, the trigger is: Rising world oil prices, rising oil prices led investors choose gold as a means of investment because gold is an alternative investment tool to protect the value of money.