WEBODIGY Business & Finance Journal

A friend once vent frustration at the government statistics issued by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). He was angry and said that nonsense BPS data and BPS did not see the field conditions.

“Read in the paper what? He said, inflation rate fell, from 0.84 percent in January 2010 to 0.30 percent in February 2010. In fact, the market prices keep rising. If you do not believe, let’s go to the market! “I tried to calm my friend. I said to the friend that it was entered in March 2010. BPS announced data for February 2010.

That way, we can not reconcile it with the BPS data that is now happening in the market. “Fine. If so, you trust me. Almost every week I go to the market. Last month I was also into the market. Even last month and I see that the price increase. Now, does this fit with BPS data? “I asked the friend, what he bought last month.

My friend rather inflamed with my question. “Of course I buy rice. Also chili sauce, which became my hobby. “You buy fresh fish and eggs or not?” I said. “Of course not, I’m a vegetarian.” Then, what is it? You buy cooking oil? “I stated again. “I follow a healthy lifestyle I rarely fry.” “Last month, you buy clothes or not?” “I am a simple person. Berhobi not buy clothes. Months ago I did not buy clothes. Your question just getting weird! “” Buy gold! ”

“What question is this. I do not have the money to buy gold. “Seeing my friends getting upset with my question, I was later told him that just so happens that the things he did not consume (fresh fish, eggs, cooking oil, clothing, and gold) were price decline in February.

Unfortunately, the price of rice and chili sauce, which he consumed, it increases a lot. I told him that he was upset at the BPS data because he consumed the goods whose prices rise. He also happens to rent a house and rent the house was up in February.

My friend was silent, but he looked very dissatisfied. He understood that the inflation rate at 0.30 percent in February 2010 that the average rate. Which fell from January to February is the average number. Suddenly he turned the issue. “You remember that in 2009 the inflation rate is much lower than the inflation rate in 2008?” “Yes, remember. Inflation reached 11.06 percent in 2008, then fell sharply to 2.78 percent in 2009. “” So, the average price in 2009 was much lower than in 2008 is not it? “Asked my friend with a half-mocking laugh. “Oh.Tidak.” “Then, am I right that the BPS nonsense,” my friend said with a grin.

I then explained that the inflation figures showed the average price increase. Inflation rate is not the average price, but the average price increase. If inflation falls, the fall is the ascent. While still rising, although the increase down, the price would continue to become more expensive. That’s what causes seems there is a “discrepancy” in statistics and in the market.

Inflation is declining to say price is not declining. While there is inflation (as long as inflation is still positive), prices will rise still continues. My friend was silent.

Tried to reflect the difference between price increases and the price itself. Lower inflation means rising prices decline, while prices were still rising. Another example is very obvious that occurred in 2005 and 2006. Inflation rate fell very sharply from 17.11 percent in 2005 to 6.60 percent in 2006.

Prices fell dramatically? Increase people’s purchasing power? Because inflation is still positive, the average price in December 2006 nearly 25 percent higher than the average in January 2005. If there was no increase in income, purchasing power actually decreased. BPS is not wrong because of inflation around the world are showing price increases, not price itself.

My friend nodded. He understands about inflation statistics. BPS is not wrong. “But,” my friend is still wondering, “we should not provide other statistics so that we may better understand the prices and purchasing power?” He said that we need statistics other than inflation. So far he had always assumed that the falling inflation means that prices are falling.

According to him, many others who think like him. He said that, if not economists, would not have known this. I replied, “There are economists who do not know about it ……. But, should it just a coincidence.” “Tom, what if every month the government also said that prices continue to rise, and not just say if inflation falls or rises. Price said to come down, when inflation is negative. ”

“According to economic theory, prices down was a sign of economic doldrums. Thus, the price decline is not good for the economy, “I tried to explain to a friend. “Tom, you are saying? Each month prices go up. But, fee I get from teaching is not up every month. Even a year or even two years is often not up. If increased, it was not because of adjustments to the price increase. My income increased only if I teach more. Sorry, I’m not an economist. “I paused. Can not answer this question. I pondered again all the economic theories I have ever learned.

Indeed we need to learn more (re-learn) economic theory. We need friends who are not economists to provide a fundamental question for economists force (including me) reviewed the “dogma” that often we have learned, including statistics that we use.

Maybe if the economists tried to “socialize” the economic concept widely not to let the economists (and economists) do not misinterpret economic statistics. Any announcements of economic statistics need an explanation of what the statistics show that. Inflation is one example.

BALIKPAPAN – The presence of 25 thousand Warga Negara Indonesia (WNI) in Tawao Malaysia recognized very sustaining economic Tawao adjacent directly to the district Nunukan, East Kalimantan. Although they are estimated not to have a legal document or illegal.

“At present the Government of Malaysia is conducting The bleaching of the presence of Indonesian citizens in Malaysia,” said Chairman of the Youth Umno region Tawao Arifin Eunuch, when visited with 10 young UMNO to Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, Wednesday (17/3/2010).

According to Arifin Kasim, currently approximately 200 thousand people inhabit Tawao, 50 thousand of whom are Indonesian. Their presence greatly affects economic development in Tawao, Malaysia.

“They’re a lot of work in the plantation sector, the fields, gas stations and so on. So we are grateful to the existence of brothers allied us in Malasyia,” said Arifin.

According to him, as a nation allied presence of Indonesians in Malaysia are like brothers because Indonesia-Malaysia was taped by a grove of wither. “We are closely allied, even the PM Datuk Najib descendants of Bugis,” he said.

Therefore he hoped the youth of UMNO still uphold the brotherhood allied with Indonesia. This is not out of mutual attachment and dependence

President Hugo Chavez announced the devaluation of the currency for the first time since 2005 that aimed to help the Venezuelan oil company’s performance.

Chavez said Bolivar currency has two exchange rates are 2.60 per dollar for the transaction of government priorities and the 4.30 per dollar for other transactions. This led to the devaluation of the exchange rate Bolivar down 17% or 50%, depending on his tier.

High exchange rate, or so-called oil dollars, will double the Venezuelan oil company earnings when converted into local currency. Over half the oil and gas revenues from the government budget, but the income was shrunk due to lower world oil prices over the past year.

Chavez said the main exchange rate will be used for food, health products, school supplies, supplies for economic development and others.

He said the policy of the new exchange rate aims to improve economic productivity, eliminate unnecessary import, and export mestimulasi.

Imports expected to fall in exchange rates are less favorable such as automotive, telecommunications products, computers, home equipment, alcohol, and tobacco.

Government official exchange rate set at 2.15 per U.S. dollar Bolivar since 2005.

Devaluation was expected to move domestic economy and limit the international impact. The Government has introduced a system of strict exchange rates since 2003 to prevent capital flight.

Chavez also stressed the government will intervene in the bond market.

Furniture industry and wood craft in Surakarta optimistic overseas market demand, especially from traditional export destinations such as the United States and Europe rebounded in the quarter I/2010.

Trust can be seen from petumbuhan export performance during the last quarter of 2009 which can be used as indicators of the improving world economic conditions, according rocked by the global crisis in 2008.

Chairman of the Association of Industry and Handicraft Permebelan Indonesia (Asmindo) Komda Surakarta David R. Wijaya said the symptoms of increased orders from abroad seen in recent months.

“It’s getting better, I’ll be looking right in February 2010. Late this year or early next year, orders have started coming,” he told Bisnis.com, today.

According to him, the world financial crisis that caused the United States economy struggled and the other European countries faltered, apparently did not take place in a long period of time.

As a result, he tells the market conditions began to passionately and export activities to many countries the main purpose of Surakarta businessman, showed a positive trend.

“We are worried the crisis had lasted longer, in fact just a moment. Including crisis worries Dubai, receive the effects do not disturb the world economy,” he said.

With the improving performance of commodity exports of furniture Surakarta, he expects the bank’s role was strengthened in supporting business activities in the region.

China’s exports rose in December for the first time in 14 months to strengthen the economic recovery that had been dependent on government stimulus. Government-owned television today broadcast the export product shipments rose 17.7% in December from a year ago, after falling by 1.2% for November. While the median estimate of 21 economists surveyed rose only 5%. In fact, none of the economists project a large number. CCTV, citing the customs, reported very strong increase in imports. Rebound in the trade sector is expected to open opportunities to continue the government of China on yuan appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Because, with the strengthening of the currency to help China withstand the impact of global trade contraction. In fact, China could become the biggest exporter of German defeat. “The government may allow the appreciation when they see a clear signal from the global recovery. Policy makers in Beijing worried about the risks of further economic terpuruknya outside China,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong. Yuan futures contracts indicated the government would let the currency appreciation of 3% above the U.S. dollar next year. This contract up to the highest level for more than a month on January 8, after the central bank directed yield moved up 3 months. The report, aired by CCTV explain imports rose about 56% in December from the previous year and indicates the monthly trade surplus of about U.S. $ 18.4 billion. In a separate Xinhua report includes a full year surplus reached U.S. $ 196.07 billion. China’s exports in 2010 is estimated driven by the global recovery. On the other hand, the export performance of Taiwan reported the largest rise in 14 years during December