WEBODIGY Business & Finance Journal

Many are predicting the year 2010 was a year of recovery of global economic crisis. But not a few who still put cautious attitude continued even predicted the coming crisis of global crisis stage two aliases.

Before going further, let’s go back a bit to recall what happens in the 2007-2008 crisis earlier. It is an innovative product called Subprime Mortgage which became the main cause.

Represents subprime mortgages (mortgages) at high risk are offered with attractive option, at least look like it. In the first year, Subprime borrowers are not charged interest. New interest charged after the first year.

This product is an attractive choice for lower-class communities in the United States (U.S.), because it makes them have a chance to have their own home. I was so much demand, named Subprime mortgage bonds are also traded on the stock market with many innovations derivatives.

Almost all major banks in the U.S. and Europe invest in this product. Subprime product value is unsparing reach U.S. $ 1.5 trillion.

But unexpectedly, so the first year went by, surprise came. Subprime lenders apparently many are not able to repay principal and interest has begun to bear after a year. As a result, major banks in the U.S. and Europe failed to pay that is not haunted by abysmal responsibility.

Not only the U.S. and Europe, its impact is felt almost the entire world economy and capital markets, including Indonesia. A total of 123 U.S. banks were finally enrolled bankruptcy. Stock market indices around the world also experienced a sharp correction over 50% in just one year.

Fortunately, in 2009 the positive sentiment and spirit of optimism managed to lift back the indices of global stock markets from collapse. And in 2010, with the same spirit, it is hoped will be a year of recovery.

Unfortunately, the road of recovery and restructuring is not likely to pass easily and smoothly. According to the VP Research & Analys PT Valbury Asia Securities Nico Omer Jonckheere, the world still must go through two stages of the global crisis.

“The recession may have ended, but the depression just beginning. The real crisis is still ahead of us,” he said in a talk with detikFinance some time ago.

According to him, most people are too happy with the euphoria of recovery in 2009, so missed seeing the signs of the crisis continued. Nico explains, Subprime Mortgage may have passed. However, he asserted, Subprime Mortgage is not the only high-risk mortgage products in the U.S..

Items referred to Nicole is home loan product called Alt-A and Option ARM. Both products are often known as Ninja loans (No Income, No Job and Assets), which means that mortgages for people who have no income, employment and collateral.

The difference with the Alt-A Subprime and Option ARM gives flexibility to the customers in paying the installments during the first 5 years. After 5 years will be subject to periodic interest rate adjustments.

“After 5 years, the average increase rate reached 80%,” he said.

According to him, this product is also a time bomb which could have an impact even judged larger than Subprime. If the value of Subprime was only U.S. $ 1.5 trillion, the value of Alt-A and Option ARM respectively reached U.S. $ 2.5 trillion and U.S. $ 500 billion. The total value of these two products reached U.S. $ 3 trillion.

“So the property market looks stable now, just waiting for the time of the adjustment of mortgage rates that will start this year (2010-2011),” he said.

If Subprime worth U.S. $ 1.5 trillion alone makes the world unorganized, you can imagine what would happen if it turns out customer product Alt-A and Option ARM also could not repay the interest thereon after the rate adjustment that will occur mid-year 2010.

In addition, Nicole also saw commercial property loans already showing signs of collapse. For the record, the value of commercial real estate loans in the U.S. reached U.S. $ 3.5 trillion.

“Commercial property prices fell by more than 34% during 2009. Customers who fail to pay the mortgage increased from 1% to 9%. The value of default increased 423% to $ 52.7 billion from the year 2008 amounted to U.S. $ 12.5 billion,” Nico said.

Commercial property transaction volumes, continued Nico, declined sharply from U.S. $ 133.2 billion in 2007 to U.S. $ 4.8 billion in the first quarter of 2009.

“Approximately 90 thousand in the U.S. commercial property is currently uninhabited, empty,” said Nico.

In addition, Nico added, more than 2,600 U.S. banks have loan portfolios of commercial properties above 300% of specified risk limits (risk based capital).

“Therefore, hundreds of small and medium-sized banks in the U.S. who have provided loans for commercial property must prepare to face big losses are likely to inundate their resources,” he said.

Nicole also said that during the year 2009, banks worldwide have made bleaching debt worth U.S. $ 1 trillion because of rising defaults. He predicted, bleaching of debt that will be the banks in the world during the year 2010 will reach U.S. $ 1.5 trillion.

“In mid 2010, the losses of banks in the U.S. will exceed the great depression of 1929,” he said.

Job market in the U.S. also assessed Nico potentially increased sharply up to the level of 13%. According to him, this time very bad condition of U.S. society.

“1 in 9 Americans, or about 39 million people, depend on the Food Stamp (food stamps) provided by the federal government,” he said.

If you have this, he added, economic conditions will likely mendek. Without the new jobs then there is no income. Without revenue, there were no purchases of goods and services. Without the purchase, corporate profits will not increase. And finally there are no new job creation.

Severity of the current global economic conditions, according to Nico because the economic system has pushed the debt is too large, so trapped in conditions of excess debt.

Based on IMF data as disclosed Nico, the debt of countries belonging to the G20 forum expected to increase its average to a level of 118.4% of the total GDP of its member countries in 2014.

“The main problem of the world economy is now no shortage of money, but excessive debt. The main problem the U.S. economy is yet to recover the property market, a soaring government debt, high unemployment, the credit does not flow,” he explained.

Nico also predicting the emergence of disappointing economic indicators from developed countries. Then will appear the company reported increased net income that is not supported by increased sales.

That means increased profit driven more by efficiency rather than by increased demand in the market. Purchasing power has not increased. In addition, the price to earnings ratio (PER) of stocks in the U.S. have reached 26 times, a level considered too high Nico.

Over a number of his analysis, he called on market participants more cautious in making investment measures. For, if the depression does occur, the stock indices around the world will again fall.

“Dow Jones will penetrate the lowest level in past crises at the level of 6469.95. It could fall within the range of 3800-5000. JCI could again fall to below 2,000 and even below 1,000,” he said.

Nevertheless, market participants suggested that Nico made a sale of at least 50% of stock portfolios into cash. Because cash is needed to make purchases when stock prices are collapsing.

“In addition to securing funding, if the market falls, can make purchases when prices are cheap. You did not get the maximum profit potential, but you also will not feel hurt,” he said.

“And, still always remember that every crisis or danger in the fact offer many opportunities. Now the international stock valuations are still expensive, but after the next crash will most likely be all the shares can be bought at prices very lucrative,” said Nico.