US Dollar and Japanese Yen stayed the strongest
Forex August 6th, 2009
Japanese yen and the US dollar were the strongest of the majors on a day when US stock indices pushed more than 2.5 percent. This shows that market relationships and hazard aversion are active. Actually, the CBOE’s VIX instability index, one of the major market alarm measures, went up over 30 for the first time since July. FX carry trades went down the most, as NZDJPY dropped sharply by 3.74 % whilst CADJPY and AUDJPY both lost just more than 3 %. Similarly, NZDUSD fell down 2.2 % whilst AUDUSD dropped 1.8 %, and the sour sentiment went opposite to US economic news. Certainly, personal profits and personal expenditure analysis were corresponding to anticipation for the month of September, as revenues stayed the same whilst expenditure dropped 0.5 %, the most severe decrease since December 2008.
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Choosing the Cheapest Bank Shares
Finance August 6th, 2009
The simplest principle of stock investment would buy at the cheapest price and sell at the highest price. But in reality, few are able to execute.
Naturally, market trends always move in the direction diperngaruhi by many factors. Although the ends always shaped wave pattern, where there is always the highest point and there is the lowest point, but in reality difficult to determine where the wave amplitude limit.
Various methods of technical analysis, trying to make a statement to investors could recognize signals to sell or buy before the incident. Especially for the daily traders, the ability to read graphs meticulous technical methods and the ability to read trends of the bid and offer positions is a must.
But for investors who prefer fundamental analysis methods, certainly has a different perspective. For a fundamental investor, the daily movement of an investment is not a reference but rather the calculations regarding the physical aspects of the company’s performance in the long term.
In a column this portfolio, detikFinance trying to bring these tips to find stocks that are included in the category of cheap, especially in the banking sector, by using methods of fundamental analysis.
According to PT Optima Securities analyst Haryo Koconegoro, there are 6 methods that can be used to find out which bank stock is considered cheap, namely:
Price to book value (P / BV).
Price to earnings ratio (PER).
Price to Pre-provision profit (P / PPP).
Market cap to deposit.
Dividend yield compared with the risk free rate of return.
ROE compared to the cost of equity.
P / BV
According Haryo, this method is a tool commonly used valuation for bank stocks. P / BV is usually used to see the real value of a bank’s net assets alias net liabilities owned.
“Investors are usually willing to buy stocks with P / BV, ROE 2 times when at least by 15% or willing to buy the P / BV, ROE 3 times if at least 20%,” he said.
Based on research results Haryo, shares of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) and PT Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (PNBN) quite expensive, while shares of PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) and PT Bank Bukopin Tbk (BBKP) into shares of the cheapest with this method .
PER (price of shares compared with net income)
This ratio is also frequently used by Haryo as P / BV. But the difference, PER is usually used to compare the stock with PER PER PER industry or market.
Haryo said the weakness of the PER calculation is easy distortion by revenues that are not related to operations such as foreign exchange earnings etc., that could affect net income position outside the operational performance.
“PER banking in 2010 reached 20 times, inline with the market PER in the range of 12.5 times,” he said.
With this method, the shares belonging to the most expensive is the BBCA and PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk (BNII). Shares are classified as the least expensive is PT Bank Danamon Tbk (BDMN) and BBKP.
P / PPP
The ratio P / PPP is used to measure the operational performance of the company. Net income volatility caused by the imposition of provisional costs and tax costs can be avoided with this method is only focused on the company’s core business.
“However, there was criticism of this method, because the cost of provision should be also important to be taken into account to reflect the quality of bank management,” explained Haryo.
The lower the value of P / PPP a bank stock, then it is said the bank’s stock price is considered cheap. With this method, stock BNII BBCA and classified as the most expensive stock. BBNI BBKP shares into shares and cheapest.
Market Cap to Deposits (market capitalization compared with DPK)
This method is used to see how far the representation of the potential growth prospects of the bank. The logic used in the application of this ratio is deposits represent funds that can be used by the bank to be channeled into productive assets, particularly loans channeled into high yielding.
“The measurement of this ratio will only be valid if the conditions of both the banking sector and not in a financial crisis because it is assumed that there are deposits that the banks could largely be channeled as loans,” said Haryo.
With this method, shares classified BNII BDMN and most expensive bank stocks, while classified BBKP BBNI and least expensive.
Dividend Yield Compared with the Risk Free Rate Return
Compare the dividend yield (dividends divided Expectations current stock price) with the risk free rate (Government Bond Yield 10-year period = 9.5%) is the valuation method used to accommodate some who argue that buying a stock is only worth doing if the dividend yield can offer a yield above that offered by the risk free rate.
“The weakness of this method is not accounting for the possibility of price increases, especially for countries in category of emerging markets such as Indonesia, which has the capacity to provide the return on investment high enough just from the appreciation in price. Therefore, investors in Indonesia more tend to want to profit from price multiples, compared to the dividend income, “he explained.
With this method, shares classified BNII BBCA and most expensive stock, while shares BBNI and BBKP be the cheapest.
ROE Compared With Cost of Equity
Rationality that is used in applying this ratio is, if the ROE of the banks under her from COE (The number of return or minimum required return of investors to invest in a stock) then the better the investor funds were invested in other banks more profitable.
“Like the other ratios, this ratio also has the disadvantage of the risk premium and beta coefficients are used (For simplicity, we generalize this time risk premium = 5%, beta = 1, and the Risk Free rate = 9.5% for all banks). Meanwhile, the weakness of the ROE calculation is the difference of the quality of net income used to calculate the ROE and capital keoptimalan (Equity) bank owned (whether too little or too much) that can affect the level of ROE banks concerned, “said Haryo.
By using this method, stock PNBN BDMN and considered as the most expensive, while the shares of PT Bank National Pension Savings Tbk (BTPN) and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) is the cheapest stock.
Well, for investors who want to invest in banking stocks may use research results in the consideration before making the investment measures
Product invaded China, DPR Prepare Questionnaire
Economy August 6th, 2009
More than five years ago, the House of Representatives with the government’s implementation of the plan to discuss free trade with China. Now, after the deal went, we like shocked, while the government and Parliament as confused and worried about its impact. It is not clear, what is the government doing the last five years.
The government itself through the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs has set up a team to step protection. However, the House of Representatives Commission VI allegedly involved stifling questionnaire immediately initiated the proposal. In fact, the Minister of Trade sees nothing to worry about the imposition of free trade policies with China [read: Free Trade greeted vertigo].
While in the field, the concern is not without reason. Look at the children’s toys and textile products circulating in the local market which are all made in China and known for cheap. Today, these products could enter freely with zero percent import duty. Can imagine what happens if no protective measures [read: Time for Hunting Cheap Chinese Goods].
Currently only, based on data Indonesian Textile Association, during 2008 there were 155 factories in 2009 was closed and 271 garment factories closed because the company unable to compete and thousands of workers laid off. Some employers eventually choose to be an importer
Wings air aviation company Operate 3 ATR 72-500
Company Info August 6th, 2009
Three ATR 72-500 aircraft owned by Wings Air has arrived in the country. The planes are coming directly from the factory in Toulouse, France, since December 19, 2009. The aircraft made a ferry flight via Cyprus, Dubai, Colombo, Batam and Jakarta. From Jakarta, the plane immediately taken to Manado, North Sulawesi, to be operated.
According to Director of Operations Wings Air Capt. Redi Irawan, in Manado, Tuesday (5/1/2010), Wings has ordered 15 aircraft with an optional 15 aircraft of this type and will arrive until mid-2011. “In this year of seven planes would come again,” he said.
These aircraft will be stationed in Ambon, Ternate, Medan, NTB, NTT, West Kalimantan and East Kalimantan with operations center in Manado.
To support the operation of aircraft, currently educating Wings have 18 sets of pilots in Bangkok. While five sets again, according to Redi, was prepared to follow the terms of education selanjutn yes.
Inauguration of operational ATR 72-500 aircraft owned by Wings is expected to be conducted tomorrow (Wednesday, 6/1/2010) morning at the Sam Ratulangi Airport Complex, Kuantan. The inauguration will be done by Transport Minister Freddy Numberi, attended North Sulawesi Governor, Director General of Civil Aviation, the French Ambassador, and representatives of ATR
Mergers Century, Bank Indonesia elite error?
Bank August 6th, 2009
Former Director of Bank Supervision Tarihoran Indonesia Sabar Anton said, the party most responsible for the acquisition and merger of Bank Century, which consists of Bank CIC, Bank Pikko, and Bank Danpac, is the head of Bank Indonesia.
In other words, a process that lasted from the year 2001-2004 should be borne in berjemaah. This patient presented to answer the questions the committee members Questionnaires Rights Case Century Bank, Tuesday (5/1/2010) at the House of Representatives. “Everyone must take responsibility,” said Patience.
They are referred to the Board of Governors Patience BI, BI Deputy Governor in charge of field supervision, and Director of Bank Supervision (then) Siti Fadjriah. According to Patience, the body of Bank Indonesia, all decisions made in stages and stages, and cross-directorate.
However, recently, information Patience little changed. Patience is said to members of the Special Committee, Benny Harm K’s, are working on the BI hierarchy, he was appointed as an officer by the Board of Governors of BI. However, he was directly responsible to the Governor of BI, the Board of Governors, and the direct supervisor (at that time Aulia Pohan). “Supervision of work done in top-down,” said Patience.
“Why, if you like that, the responsibility for decisions taken are not horizontal (covered with),” Benny said. Patient could not answer and was silent.
Patient information on the investigation Tuesday evening several members of the Special Committee considered confusing. Some things are opposite each other. This bluntly acknowledged committee members, Akbar Faizal. “I do not believe in your description,” Akbar said. “Intellectual disturbed me,” he added.
